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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 10/15 12:01
Technical Pressure Sends Livestock Complex Lower
All three of the livestock markets are trading lower into Tuesday's noon
hour as technical pressure abounds.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is enduring some pressure as the market nears
Tuesday's noon hour. More than anything, the market seems to be liquidating
from a technical sense as traders believe the complex is somewhat overbought.
December corn is down 5 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down
$3.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 68.30 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Traders seem to think Tuesday needs to be a downward trending day as the
live cattle market is trading more than $1.00 lower in all contracts. One could
point to the market's stronger boxed beef prices and say market fundamentals
should be strong enough to support steady price; but given that the futures
complex is technically overbought, we knew some trader liquidation was likely
to come regardless of market fundamentals. October live cattle are down $1.55
at $186.70, December live cattle are down $1.62 at $186.30, and February live
cattle are down $1.50 at $187.17. Asking prices are noted at $189 to $190 in
the South but remain unestablished still in the North. No cash cattle trade is
expected to develop ahead of Wednesday at the absolute earliest.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.04 ($316.36) and select up $2.68
($291.78) with a movement of 73 loads (38.78 loads of choice, 16.87 loads of
select, 6.14 loads of trim and 11.46 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is also feeling some significant technical
pressure as the market is currently trading anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 lower.
This obviously pushes the spot November feeder cattle contract back below its
100-day moving average. Unless the live cattle market changes its tune and
direction, It's likely feeders will continue to trade in this dreary manner
through the day's end. October feeders are down $2.12 at $247.00, November
feeders are down $2.97 at $246.60, and January feeders are down $2.87 at
$244.72.
LEAN HOGS:
Earlier Tuesday the lean hog complex was trading higher but as the noon hour
nears, the lean hog complex is seeming to absorb some of the same pressure the
cattle contracts are enduring. December lean hogs are down $0.12 at $75.67,
February lean hogs are steady at $79.82, and April lean hogs are down $0.02 at
$84.17. Also not helping matters is the fact that morning cutout values are
slightly lower and again cash prices aren't visible because not enough hogs
have traded.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 10/14/2024 is down $0.08 at $84.08, and
the actual index for 10/11/2024 is down $0.13 at $84.16. Hog prices are
unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality.
However, we can see that just 1,485 head have traded and that the market's
five-day rolling average now sits at $75.52. Pork cutouts total 250.99 loads
with 190.08 loads of pork cuts and 60.91 loads of trim. Pork cutout values:
down $0.08, $94.89.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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