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DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/17 10:51
Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday; Corn Lower
Corn futures are 3 to 8 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 9
to 11 cents higher; wheat futures are 13 to 25 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the S&P up 54 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 70 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are
firmer with crude.55 higher and natural gas up .32. Livestock trade is mixed.
Precious metals are firmer with gold up 5.60.
CORN:
Corn futures are 3 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade fading slightly off
the fresh highs with little fresh bullish news to extend recent strength along
with weaker spread action. The export wire has been quiet this week. Any
rebound in prices is likely to limit that again in the short term while basis
remains flat. The ethanol margins will continue to be squeezed by input costs
with soft driving demand and still burdensome stocks short term. The second
crop in Brazil will head for the homestretch with drier weather in much of
Brazil. U.S. weather remains challenging for many in the short term with cooler
weather to the north limiting drying. Weekly Crop Progress showed 49% planted
versus 67% on average, with emergence at 14% versus 32% on average, mostly in
line with trade expectations. On the July contract chart, we have support at
the 20-day moving average at $7.96, which we pushed through late in the session
Monday with the highs at $8.24 1/2 above that.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 9 to 12 cents higher with the momentum to the upside
slowing again as products are unable to extend recent gains as meal falters
again and there is little fresh soybean-specific news out there. Meal is $3.00
to $4.00 lower and oil is 80 to 100 points higher. South America is moving
toward post-harvest footing at this point. U.S. crop progress showed 30%
planted versus 39% on average with 9% emerged versus 12% on average. New-crop
November is gaining slightly against corn this morning, with time running short
to hold acres. The export wire was quiet again Tuesday. On the July soybean
chart, we are just above the 20-day moving average at $16.54 with the $17.00
area as the next level of resistance, and further support at the lower
Bollinger band at $15.79.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 13 to 25 cents higher at midday with Chicago action
leading volatile trade so far with early gains turning to broad losses
overnight before trade worked back higher from a test of the $13.00 area. The
dollar has faded just off the top of the range again. KC wheat is back to a
29-cent discount to Minneapolis in firmer action, and at a 100-cent premium to
Chicago, just off the highs. Weekly crop progress showed winter wheat
conditions fading 2% to 27% good to excellent, with 41% poor to very poor, and
48% headed versus 53% on average, while spring wheat was 39% planted versus 67%
on average, and 16% emerged versus 30% on average. The KC July chart has
resistance at the fresh high at $13.79, with support the upper Bollinger Band
at $13.24 with the open gap below the market at $12.92.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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