DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/15 11:11
Corn, Wheat Lower at Midday
Soybeans are leading at midday, with corn and wheat testing lows.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 155. The dollar index is 11
lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with crude $0.70
higher. Livestock trade is weaker except for feeder cattle. Precious metals are
mixed with gold down $6.30.
Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade fading back to test
the lows with little fresh news to encourage buyers. Ethanol margins remain
stable to firmer with cheaper corn, and firmer ethanol and unleaded. Basis has
held up well with the slow pace of harvest so far with propane shortages still
noted, but warmer weather should help. South America should see areas of
improvement as planting progresses, especially in Brazil. Weekly export sales
remain soft at 581,600 metric tons. On the December contract support is the
$3.71 lows from October, with resistance the 20-day at $3.82 1/2.
Soybeans are 1 to 3 cents higher with trade finding light buying at midday
with trade still looking for a spark for buying with nickel higher trade in the
day session evaporating. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 higher and oil 25 to 35 points
lower. The real remains at the lows, but export sales are holding up OK at 1.25
million metric tons of beans, 345,300 metric tons of meal, and oil 30,600
metric tons. Bean basis has moved to a more sideways trend short-term with
pockets of firmness showing up at crushers. South America should make more
progress through the week with improved weather, and Brazil heading towards the
planting homestretch. On the January chart, support is the lower Bollinger Band
at $9.11, which we are just above with resistance well above the market at
Wheat trade is 3 to 4 cents lower with trade back to the lower end of the
range with spillover from corn, along with lackluster export sales. The
Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 84 cents with light gains for KC so far.
The corn/HRW spread has widened back to 50 cents, getting wheat back towards
ratios. Russian values remain elevated with Australia dry, but the U.S. is
still struggling to capture a larger share, with the dollar remaining at the
upper end of the range. Weekly export sales were disappointing at 238,600
metric tons. The December Kansas City chart support is the lower Bollinger Band
at $4.14, with resistance the 20-day at 4.23.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
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